What Trump’s Election Win Means For Crypto In 2025

Key Takeaways

• The incoming Trump administration is expected to create a clear regulatory framework that promotes the adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies more broadly.
• The election outcome and leadership change at key agencies, such as the SEC, will likely result in the U.S. becoming a leader in crypto adoption once again.
• Talks of a Bitcoin “strategic reserve” under Trump are ongoing, with details still lacking. Given U.S. law enforcement already holds roughly 200,000 BTC, it’s possible that this balance is repurposed to become the strategic reserve, as promised by Trump earlier this year.

Market Reaction To Trump Win

Following Donald Trump’s election win in early November, Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed $150,000 for the first time, with the total crypto market also hitting all-time highs. It’s likely that the rally was partially due to the market being optimistic over how crypto will be regulated under a Trump administration. As explored below, it remains to be seen just how effective the president-elect will be in executing his various pro-crypto election promises.

Mandate for Change

The U.S. government currently holds approximately 200,000 BTC, making it one of the largest holders. This amount has been seized by various law enforcement agencies as part of criminal investigations. These agencies had been slowly selling these holdings, and it was assumed this would continue happening—that was until Trump won November’s election.

In addition to winning the presidential vote, the Republicans took out the majority in both houses of Congress

Three Areas To Follow Under Trump

What Will The U.S. Government Do With Its Bitcoin?

Beyond Trump being voted in as the next president, the Republican Party took out the majority in both houses of Congress—in other words, achieving a ‘red sweep’—giving the party increased policy-making power. This is relevant for crypto, given that the Republican Party has seemingly become increasingly pro-crypto in recent times.

During his election campaign, Trump promised to not sell any BTC currently held by the government. Specifically, at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in July, he said the following:

Importantly, Trump never promised that the U.S. government would purchase BTC. To date, he has only commented on his plans for the government’s existing stash of BTC.

Who Will Replace SEC Chair Gary Gensler?

Trump's win resulted in the resignation of Gary Gensler, the chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In July, Trump promised to fire Gensler if he were to be elected as the next U.S. president.

Under Gensler, the SEC reportedly became increasingly uncooperative with the crypto industry and sought legal action against a number of U.S. crypto companies. While it remains to be seen who Trump appoints as the next SEC chair, they are widely expected to be more open to collaborating with the crypto industry in a fair and reasonable manner.

Will The Regulatory Environment Actually Be Crypto-Friendly?

The incoming Trump administration is widely expected to foster a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment, where Congress can work on advancing legislation around market structure and stablecoins. It may take a long time for any comprehensive bills to pass because crypto is only one of the many items on the Republican party’s policy agenda.

Earlier this year, both houses of Congress voted to overturn the SEC’s SAB 121 accounting rule that essentially prevented banks from providing crypto custody solutions. However, President Biden’s office vetoed the change, meaning the rule still stands.

While nothing is certain, all signs suggest that SAB 121 will be overturned next year. This would essentially allow banks to start offering crypto custody services, a change that would presumably make it significantly easier to get involved in crypto.

Conclusions

A second Trump administration is anticipated to bring regulatory shifts and policies more favourable to cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin. Key expectations include regulatory clarity, the easing of restrictions for crypto businesses, and a potential national Bitcoin reserve. These moves could entrench the U.S. as a global leader in crypto adoption after years of falling behind.